1. Theresa May will talk a lot about looking after the neglected in society but the tax cuts for the rich will keep coming and the benefit cuts for the poor will also continue. Thatcher promised to bring harmony. Blair was going to conduct an ethical foreign policy. Brown was there to end boom and bust. Whilst Cameron wanted nothing more than to give us the Big Society and the Greenest government ever.
2. Splits and arguments over which direction the Conservative Party should take will continue. Indeed those splits will get sharper and nastier. A majority of 12 and some very unhappy and ideologically driven back benchers will make the Conservative Party very hard to control.
3. Because of the deep ideological splits at the heart of government and in the back benches it will be very hard to adopt one clear straightforward approach towards exit. Any attempt to give up on access to the single market will be hated by Conservatives with European business interests. Any attempt to give up on controlling freedom of movement or continue to contribute to EU budgets will be seized on as a betrayal by the right. UK negotiators - if any with the right experience can be found - are highly likely to struggle along for the full two years in an attempt to square that impossible circle.
4. Economic uncertainty will therefore continue and get worse. This will impact on investment and on business confidence.
5. The Bank of England's determination to prop up the economy and the fall in the pound may be enough to avoid the very worst for the economy. But the measures will do more for the service sector than for manufacturing and more for London than for the regions. They will also represent a major waste of opportunity as yet more quantitative easing money is frittered away on speculation instead of investment in change.
6. Unless Theresa May's government abandons some key elements of extreme free market economics in favour of a determined economic plan the regions will continue to fall behind London and the UK economy will slow down. Serious budget and balance of payments deficits will also drag heavily on the economy.
7. The same people who voted exit because they felt left out and betrayed will be even worse off and even more disillusioned.
8. UKIP will gain votes from this disillusioned section and it won't get weaker just because the referendum has been held. It will continue to gain in strength until a more attractive alternative approach to our problems is put before the public in a clear and straightforward way and is seen to be capable of achieving significant real improvements to ordinary people's lives. A dangerous minority of people are going to decide that UKIP isn't nasty enough and turn to very far right politics.
9. After the usual initial surge in popularity for the new PM her ratings will start to drop like a stone.
10. There will be a clamour for a fresh General Election before exit and for a second referendum on the actual terms instead of on the promises of politicians.
If any of part of this analysis is even remotely correct then we are entering a period of great opportunity and great threat. Any progressive well organised alternative to a divided confused Conservative party will gain in popularity, members, voters and supporters. Any divided squabbling party will fail to connect with the real public concerns. An alliance of a wide range of progressive forces putting forward a positive alternative could win the next General Election by a significant majority, particularly if anything can be done to come to an agreement over who leads the opposition in which seats. A divided confused left could lose it by an even larger one.
Anyone who thinks they can cure the splits on the left by defeating the other factions and re-creating one monolithic Labour Party which is united behind a single middle of the road policy agenda is seriously misreading the mood of the country and their own party. They are going to add to the damage not cure it. Anyone on the far left who thinks they can solve our problems by forcing the "workers movement" to adopt a single minded Marxist agenda is likely to do every bit as much damage. If not more.
What is going to be needed is an acceptance of a plurality of views. A recognition that the issues that concern us have as much to do with liberty, community and environment as they do with equality. A looser set of organisational alliances that brings people together from different parties and different pressure groups. New ways of working that enthuse people in different ways. A recognition that old fashioned committee room politics are desperately tedious and only for hobbyists. A realisation, that people can be mobilised via social media into activism on a whole range of single issues. An acceptance that the public are much less impressed by anyone who studies the opinion polls before announcing what they think but is prepared to offer respect to people who have been working away steadily at an agenda for years without thinking about the personal payback. Like Bernie Saunders. An understanding that people want a major shakeup of the existing system and are increasingly unlikely to accept opinions that are thrust upon them from one single media source as they get their information and views from their social media feed not from all watching the nine o'clock news at the same time.
In short the opportunities are there to be taken. But it is going to take a lot of new thinking and a significant change in understanding of how people can be brought together to achieve political change. I leave readers to judge for themselves who is responding positively to these opportunities and who is misreading the situation and doing more harm than good.