The first thing that was revealed in committee questions was quite how badly Northern Ireland has been shafted. When the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, appeared before a House of Lords committee on the European Union he was asked what customs paperwork would be required for a Northern Ireland firm sending goods to the rest of the UK. He replied that there wouldn’t be any. Then his advisers hurriedly checked. He corrected himself. The Brexit Secretary hadn’t read the agreement he was selling carefully enough to discover that businesses in Northern Ireland will not be able to sell anything to England without filling out customs paperwork and being subject to checks.
That is astonishing ignorance. It is an equally astonishing revelation. Businesses in one part of the United Kingdom now have to complete forms and potentially to pay tariffs if they wish to sell anything to another part of the United Kingdom. That is where 80% of Northern Ireland’s trade goes. No wonder the DUP are furious.
Look carefully at almost any part of the deal and it is clear that it is a worse deal than anything Theresa May tried to get approved. She committed the UK to at least matching the environmental standards of the EU. Johnson has removed that commitment. Because he knows he can’t sign a deal with the US without including agriculture and if he does that many UK farms would be driven out of business if they have to comply with higher standards than US ones. May also committed the country to match EU workers’ rights legislation. Johnson refuses to do so and he spin doctors are saying “surely you can trust the UK government to maintain the highest standards of workers’ rights”.
Shame on anyone who might think differently. After all the government of the United Kingdom is nothing if not honest and trustworthy. Or not. As the DUP has just discovered to its cost it is not a wise thing to place your trust in Johnson. He can’t even be trusted to properly obey the outcomes of a vote in the House of Commons or even to let it meet when he finds that inconvenient. He used public office to arrange favours for his mistress and then lied about it. He promised to lie down in front of the bulldozers at Heathrow Airport. That’s how much he can be trusted.
He also told us that it would be easy to strike a deal with the EU. There are plenty of words to describe what has happened but easy is not one of them. So why should we believe him when he tells us that it will be easy now to strike a free trade deal with the EU within 14 months? His supporters are busy touring TV studios telling everyone that because we start with the same regulations as the EU it is really simple to strike a deal. Next minute they tell us that the advantage of being out of the EU is we will strike new trade deals with countries around the world. The two statements are logically incompatible. If you are going to increasingly diverge from EU customs duties and regulations then there has to be a border and customs checks. If you are not going to diverge then we might as well remain and have a vote on the rules. It will be incredibly difficult to strike a free trade deal with the EU because they know that many Brexiteers want a bonfire of the regulations and the EU simply can’t exist if it creates a backdoor entry point for businesses which dodge their rules.
Hidden in the depths of the 500 pages a clause has already been found that says that the government can simply tell Parliament that it is going to abandon attempts at a free trade deal with the EU and go for a no deal solution. Johnson has shown zero respect for Parliament so how can it trust him and simply wave through one of the most important pieces of legislation it has been presented with in years in a rush?
If Johnson can be made to take his Brexit bill line by line through the House of Commons it will be amended heavily and improvements can be made. There is a chance that MPs will force back into the bill a guarantee to meet EU environmental standards and workers’ rights.
There is also a chance that as they examine the bill, and more information comes out, more MPs will not like what they hear and they will realise that the public has the right to a say on whether they like this bill. How can it possibly be right that the public are asked whether they like sweet promises but not given a chance to express their view on the actual reality of a very bad deal?
If a poll took place today then it is entirely possible that Johnson’s deal would pass. It is also possible that with every passing day more of the flaws in this rapidly cobbled together attempt to bounce us out with nothing of substance resolved will become evident. Let’s just get this done is a popular slogan. “Let’s just create a border between different parts of the United Kingdom and wreck environmental standards” might prove a lot less popular.
The far-right cabal that has infiltrated what used to be the Conservative Party don’t want to take the risk of losing a referendum on this deal. They are relying on national exhaustion with the whole Brexit project to deliver them a General Election win and to squeeze through a bad deal before most people realise Brexit rows aren’t remotely over and we are back into another draining round of negotiations.
Those who are trying to prevent this have an uphill struggle but have two overwhelming advantages. The first is that this really is a very bad deal and it isn’t going to take long for that to become clear. The second is that the character of Johnson. Any election campaign or fresh referendum is going to bring that under increasing scrutiny and it simply doesn’t stand up to any. Who wants a Prime Minister who is a liar, a cheat and a corrupt womaniser who uses public office to arrange favours for his mistress?
One final thought. Any referendum on Johnson’s half sorted deal is likely to mean the UK couldn’t leave before the 1st January 2020. That just happens to be the date when a new EU law requires people to declare any offshore bank accounts and pay tax on them or risk jail.
Mr Rees Mogg wouldn’t like that one little bit. Which is one extra very good reason to keep fighting for a second referendum and to win it.