In any logical world that would quickly lead to the government agreeing to extend article 50 for a lengthy period of time whilst we hold a referendum and an election
Since Theresa May is incapable of flexibility of mind and can only keep repeating the same slogan we are now relying on Parliament to deliver that. So we could be on the verge of an important and hugely helpful change. We could get the referendum and we could win it and then get on with the job of mending our neglected regions and building a genuinely stable society, economy and ecology.
But there are a number of really serious threats to that happening and worryingly they don’t all come from the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg or Boris Johnson – some of the them come from the Labour Party. As I see it the risks to a successful outcome are as follows:
- Theresa May’s could scare enough MPs into voting for her deal for it to win at the last minute. That is her first choice strategy. In fact so far it has been her only strategy. It would, however, be surprising if enough MPs became cowardly enough to bring themselves to vote for this after all that they have said.
- May could call an election and put her deal to the nation that way. She could go on the attack claiming that she is the only one who is looking for a “sensible” compromise way forward. In those circumstances almost any result is possible. Including a massive win for her and also an even more massive defeat that sees the destruction of the Conservative Party as we know it. The mood of the country is that volatile and a very large number of people just want all this discussion about it to end and a lot of people don’t really care too much about how. Her party is therefore unlikely to take such a giant risk deliberately.
- May could get her deal through by offering a referendum and then make it a binary choice. Her deal or no deal. Let the people decide with a gun to their head.
- The other likely outcome is that Labour could win a vote in Parliament for a milder form of Brexit that keeps us in the customs union. If that happens it is highly likely that they would also be keen on putting a binary choice to the electorate. The only time Corbyn talks about a second referendum is when he says that he would be prepared to offer people the choice between his “Jobs First” Brexit and No Deal. Faced with a government that is quite determined to ram a binary choice on an electorate that doesn’t agree with either option Corbyn, or any of the MPs who have put forward motions could present the public with an equally false choice accompanied by a rather slower exit. Implausible as it sounds this is actually now a serious probability. A majority of MPs may persuade Parliament and the EU to accept a long delay on departure, fresh MEP elections, and a binary choice referendum on a softer Brexit.
If people want to vote for economic disaster they must be allowed to do so. If we can’t win a popular vote against No Deal then it will have to happen and the electorate and the people who lied to them about “a bit of disruption” will also have to live with the consequences. That is better than living with the consequences of allowing a lot of people to believe that they were cheated out of a wonderful tomorrow by dithering politicians. I want the far right’s nationalist fantasy soundly beaten by the electorate in a fair first referendum on the facts, not a lot of resentful people who have been given no chance to express their sincerely held views.
No Brexit must also be on any ballot paper that is fair. You cannot legitimately turn round to the majority of the current electorate and say that a referendum is being held but they aren’t allowed to vote for the best deal available. The one we started with. Nor can you tell reasonable people that democracy ended three years ago when we were allowed to express an opinion on whether we liked wild promises. The anger of reasonable people is every bit as important as the anger of fanatics and it is utterly unfair to offer a referendum without the full spectrum of options.
Yet politicians with binary minds are trying hard to force binary choices on the public so that they can get their own way. That is not a referendum. It is a plebiscite. Something which has been a discredited political device since the days of ancient Athens.
What is needed is a fair choice on a single transferable vote system. We must provide people with a simple 1st, 2nd and 3rd choice on No Deal, the negotiated deal and No Brexit. Then polling stations simply eliminate the lowest scoring choice and transfer the votes.
It is an excellent system that enables people to vote for what they really want first but not have their vote wasted if that is for a minority choice. An idea that would also massively improve the system that the British people are subjected to in Parliamentary elections and local government elections.
If we had even that degree of Proportional Representation then we might have an awful lot more MPs like the excellent Caroline Lucas and a few less like the awful Rees Mogg.
All opinion polls show a very clear progressive majority now exists in this country. False binary choices between two monolithic political parties have landed us with a Conservative Government which is dominated by a few fanatical far right members. It is they who have got us into this mess. Binary choice politics has also left us with one large and clumsy opposition party that has failed to effectively oppose Brexit.
Let’s not make the mess created by first past the post binary choice politics any worse by offering the public false binary choices over what kind of Brexit they prefer. The majority of the public no longer want it at all.