Following the Johnson coup all that has changed. We now have genuinely clear policy from the government. Unfortunately, strong and unstable is looking like it is going to prove even less helpful than delay, dither, division and confusion.
For a strong leadership to be effective it needs to be leadership in a positive direction. Few of us wish to follow a leader over the top of the trenches if we are doomed to be shot down in a flurry of machine gun fire straight away. There is no merit in bravely leading the troops towards an economic, political, social and constitutional disaster at the same time as ignoring a massive environmental crisis.
Johnson is heading forward with great certainty and self-confidence. He is making promises and talking about spending huge quantities of money with easy assurance. Excessive self-doubt has never been his biggest problem. What he lacks is honesty, judgement, reliability and careful assessment of the detailed consequences of his actions. He has a long track record as a liar and a cheat.
In his personal life Johnson has continually made promises to women and then left them behind. His current wife recently expressed huge gratitude for the support she received from her four children during her cancer treatment. It is less clear that she appreciated seeing the new PM move in with his mistress at the very moment she was undergoing the treatment.
Why does anyone expect him to behave differently with the nation? This is the man who told us we could have our EU cake and eat it. This is the man who told us the EU would quickly give in and allow us a good trade deal and that the chances of a no deal crash out were a million to one.
That was, of course, three years ago when he wanted us to vote his way in the referendum. As soon as his self-interest changed his words also changed. We are now told we must leave on 31st October come what may.
Many who voted to leave the EU in the referendum were persuaded to do so by his constant repetition to the argument that the UK Parliament must retain its sovereignty. Back then there was no talk of him deliberately over riding the intentions of Parliament and preventing it from having a meaningful say on decisions of fundamental long term national significance. Many others voted out because they believed Johnson when he told us we would easily get a good trade deal with the EU and so didn’t need to be part of any plans to create a political union. He specifically re-assured voters that there was no risk that we’d leave without any trade deal in place or any idea of how and when one would be secured. Others voted out because they wanted the UK to once again be a great separate nation. There was no mention then of placing the UK under the thumb of John Bolton, Donald Trump and an American trade deal but that is what Johnson is now busy setting up.
The biggest single factor persuading 52% of the British people to back Brexit was, I believe, the very understandable anger amongst those living in neglected communities about the way people like them had been treated during ten years of austerity. To give Johnson his due he clearly understands that emotion. He is determined to play it for every vote he can get. Then, once he is the other side of a snap election campaign, he can safely go back to ignoring them even more comprehensively and to making the tax cuts that his Bullingham club pals will approve of.
So, at the same time as plotting to do away with Parliamentary influence, Johnson is very busy promising every single thing he can think of that will win votes without any thought about the consequences. Because he knows he can change his mind later if he wins his gamble on an early election.
So far, he has promised money for the northern powerhouse project, money for schools, money for the NHS, money for prisons, money for police and tax cuts. He has also promised the haulage industry, sheep farmers, the retail trade and businesses that there will be money to cover up the costs of a no deal Brexit. The cost of this is so enormous that even the Daily Mail has started to ask some pretty obvious questions about where all this money is coming from. They calculated that his promises in his first two weeks in office cost £30 billion.
We have spent ten years listening to a Conservative government lecturing us on the importance of acting responsibly. Whilst they chose to act utterly irresponsibly about the climate crisis by encouraging fracking, effectively banning onshore windfarms and wrecking the progress of the UK solar panel industry.
Now we are expected to sit back and listen to their new MP promise us the earth and throw money around like there is no tomorrow. That is just not trustworthy economics.
So, voters who are looking for responsible politics need now to look elsewhere. Many are choosing to do so by looking to the Liberal Democrats. They do indeed have some excellent policies. They usually do when they are in opposition. The slight problem is that they have a bad track record of ditching those policies once they are in power. Don’t forget those tuition fees.
Some voters continue to place their faith in Labour who continue to have many excellent members and some good policies. At the same time as carrying much of the blame for utterly failing to honestly tell voters from the first that Brexit would lead us into this mess.
Everyone left of a very far right centre is now faced with a government that is determined to recklessly risk the bank on delivering a crude no deal Brexit. Since no one has ever been asked to vote for this we need to hold some of our noses on our very real differences and try to work together. Everything now depends on whether progressive forces can win a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s gamble and then to form some sort of temporary caretaker government to ensure an election happens before no deal is forced on us.
Achieve that and I believe the election can and will be won. Labour can fight off the Brexit party in the industrial heartlands. The Lib Dems and the Greens can win seats off the Conservatives in remain areas where they are highly vulnerable.
If Labour and the LibDems insist on continuing to call each other names whilst depending heavily on asking the supporters of other parties to back them in marginal constituencies then it is much more likely the election will be lost and lost badly. If they offer nothing to smaller parties like the Greens and just expect them to stand gracefully aside, they can also expect to be badly disappointed. In the middle of a massive climate crisis which is exceeding even the environmentalists worst predictions a lot of people are looking to vote for a party that is serious about the environmental crisis. Greens are willing to cooperate with others but not willing to go away quietly just when we are most needed.
The UK could well be about to witness the disaster of a Johnson No Deal and a Johnson election win. It is still very possible to stop that. But a refusal by Labour to collaborate with any other party by standing aside in places where it cannot possibly win isn’t going to help. Nor is a Lib Dem refusal to negotiate with Corbyn.
Parties that believe themselves to be progressive have to get serious about give and take collaboration and do so very quickly or they will regret it for a very long time.