Here are the possibilities as I see them.
- Theresa May’s cabinet met for 8 hours and the most important thing they could agree on was that they were scared of holding another General Election. They were also scared of getting the blame for a chaotic No Deal Brexit in 10 days time. So they decided to try and spread the blame. It is entirely possible that she has no intention of compromising on anything of significance and the intention is to play out a political game for a few days in the hope that she might discredit Corbyn. She is also trying to scare some of her hard Brexit party members with the prospect of his involvement in the next stage. Which means that she is still trying to push her deal over the line.
It is also possible that Jeremy Corbyn has no intention of signing up to an agreed route forward and is also solely interested in shifting blame.
- Theresa May genuinely thinks that she can get a compromise agreed with Jeremy Corbyn and intends to switch to ask the EU to give the UK more time to pursue a version of Brexit that involves closer customs alignment.
The second situation offers rather more of a glimmer of hope. Yet it utterly depends on two people who are determined to deliver Brexit agreeing on a route forward. It involves them working together on the next stage of the process when the antagonism and mistrust between the two of them seems genuine. It also involves them moving with clarity, speed and determination towards offering the public a genuine say on whether they like the final deal.
Imagine for a second that they do agree on a form of words about the way forward that they can get the majority of their two parties to vote for in Parliament. The challenge then becomes time. A change in negotiating stance will involve a significant delay whilst a fresh deal is sorted out or the current one is added to.
To get that time May will have to go back to the EU and explain what is going to be different about the UK’s approach and why they should be prepared to work with us. For that to be successful she will have to offer something concrete that is different. A delay for an election would create a clearly different situation but she seems now to have decided against that. A delay for a second referendum is therefore the only reliable way to unlock opposition in the EU.
I think May and Corbyn might both now be edging towards the idea of a referendum. But only on their own terms. There is every possibility that they will agree to offer the British people a choice between No Deal and Brexit on the terms that they agree in the next two or three days. Because that is the easiest way for Corbyn to say that he has met his Conference resolution and also the easiest way for May to keep both factions of her party on side. It is much less likely that either will want to offer the public the choice of No Brexit on any second referendum ballot paper.
That leaves the country heavily dependent on the EU negotiators. It is easy to see why they might agree to more time to allow the British people to vote for all available options including No Brexit. It is not easy to see why they would allow a brief delay whilst May organises a plebiscite on a binary choice that excludes Remain.
Much therefore depends on what approach May and Corbyn take towards getting out of the log jam and how determined the EU is to insist that any agreed approach has to be genuinely different. There is now a possibility that the only way forward that May can negotiate will involve agreeing to put a newly negotiated softer deal to the people in an open and fair single transferable vote on No Deal, Her Deal and No Brexit.
Yet it is only a possibility. Never underestimate the power of cock up and unforeseen circumstances in politics. If I was betting hard money right now it would be on Theresa May and her cabinet seriously miscalculating the willingness of the EU to simply cut ties with the UK to limit the contagion and to allow them to get on with sensible decision making without us. If I was looking for hope then I would wish to believe that May and Corbyn would both see sense at the same time and recognise that they won’t get the time they need for any change of direction without agreeing to a full and fair second referendum.
Given their track record I can’t say that I am over inspired by optimism. We will see. But I can’t help speculating once again where we would be as a nation if the Labour Party had spent the last two and a half years articulating all the reasons why Brexit would result in national humiliation instead of telling us we could have a mythical jobs first Brexit.