The logic runs as follows:
1. The Conservative Party has lost the support of the youth vote. Most of its supporters are elderly and will steadily reduce in numbers whilst the supporters of progressive parties are mainly young and an increasing proportion of young people are determined to vote.
2. It has a leader who has failed to connect with the people during an election campaign so badly that she lost a 20 percentage points lead in six weeks.
3. It is very hard to get rid of that leader without provoking vicious infighting over who replaces her and then having to go to the electorate to seek an endorsement for the new leader. Yet that leader continues to make very bad mistakes.
4. The party is very badly split over virtually every post Brexit policy you can name. As soon as policy is announced on things as wide ranging as immigration, free trade, or farm subsidies the two utterly divergent wings of the Party are highly likely to fight. Perhaps to the death.
5. The economy is turning sour. The Conservatives are scheduled to preside over the implementation of the worst of the Osborne austerity cuts just as we hit inflationary pressures and business uncertainty. It still hasn't balanced income and expenditure and hasn't even begun to address a huge balance of payments deficit which is set to get worse because of Brexit.
6. They don't have a majority and are propped up by the votes of the DUP. If either the Scottish Tories or the Remain Tories are determined enough to vote something down then it won't go through Parliament. The House of Lords may also block anything it perceives to be too extreme. And every by-election in a Conservative seat could make the mathematics worse.
This is a powerful set of factors that could very easily bring May's government down. We could very well be looking at another election in a few weeks and the way the public mood and the polls are moving that election could well result in a majority for a Labour led coalition followed by near terminal infighting amongst Conservatives.
Yet hang on a minute. The most dangerous thing in politics is to believe the things that you want to be true and not to analyse carefully the other set of possibilities. I happen to believe that it is entirely possible that Theresa May will be in power for two years and that there is a very high risk that she will stick around for long enough to deliver a particularly unpleasant version of Brexit. My logic is as follows:
1. If they were going to dump May quickly they would already have done it. They know they can't agree on an alternative and they know they'd face another election if they did. So they are reluctantly uniting around her.
2. With the DUP support she has enough votes to get her main policies through Parliament. She doesn't need to pass a lot of government bills in order to occupy office. She can actually do very little in Parliament and simply let her pro-leave Ministers lead the negotiations into whatever form of Brexit they choose.
3. David Cameron passed a fixed term Parliament act which means that simply losing a vote of no confidence or being defeated on a finance bill is no longer enough to force an election. It needs both Labour and the Conservatives to vote for an election en masse for one to happen. Whilst it is highly likely that a minority of Conservatives will rebel on an important bill it is not likely that a majority will vote for an election they look likely to lose.
4. A high proportion of the public still want Brexit to work and can easily be provoked into backing a UK government against the EU. I don't like this. But it is the reality. The hardest sell I had to make during the election campaign was the idea of a second referendum. There isn't yet any sign of an appetite for one. There is plenty of evidence that a lot of those who wanted to remain think the issue is settled and just want to get on with doing it well.
5. Labour still isn't done with its own splits and is quite capable of handing the Conservatives some new weapons to beat it with. Corbyn is a very good campaigner. The evidence that he is a good organiser of effective Parliamentary opposition has yet to be demonstrated.
Looking at both sides of the equation it is still entirely possible that the shambolic incompetence of the Conservative Party over the past year will continue and it will crash and burn quickly. It is also entirely possible that it will cling with determination to office and last a lot longer than many people hope. At the moment my money is on the latter.
I think we are going to be facing two years of a badly damaged leader trying to steer the country through an incredibly difficult set of negotiations with a divided party. Under a rational leader that would result in the worst stupidities of Brexit being ruled out. There clearly isn't a parliamentary majority for far right ideological fantasy. A rational leader might also decided that a government that can't pass too many government bills is not entirely a bad thing if it focuses on implementing existing policies well rather than thinking up new ones. There is a case for saying that it is a lot better to be led towards Brexit by a humbled government than by an arrogant one. Unfortunately Theresa May is arrogantly refusing to learn her mistakes and is not over blessed with humility.
Instead she has put people in charge of Brexit who are incapable of reasonable compromise either inside the UK or internationally. People like David Davies aren't going to suddenly become pragmatic overnight. Michael Gove isn't going to come up with a wonderful set of environmental policies that replace EU directives. Free market conservatives aren't going to replace EU workers rights legislation with a ban on zero hours contracts or sign a free trade deal with Donald Trump that helps protect the NHS from competition to run the cheap and easy parts of the service.
In short we are going to have to fight every step of the way against a weak government that is going to try and impose fiercely ideological policies onto the British people. That battle looks massively easier after the election than it did before. But it is still not going to be short or simple. A damaged Conservative government may yet prove capable of doing every bit as much harm as a strong and stable one. We need to dig in for a long hard fight.