A million people marched the streets of London to ask for a Second Referendum. Five million people and rising have signed a petition asking for Article 50 to be revoked and for the UK to just stay in the EU. The Prime Minister is almost completely without authority and her party has entered the final death throws of its vicious splits. Possibilities are opening up that didn’t seem realistic a few weeks ago.
It is now entirely possible that:
- Parliament simply won’t vote for Theresa May’s “deal”
- Theresa May will go in a few days
- Parliament won’t be able to agree on any particular route forward
- Parliament will then decide that the only way out of the situation is to hold a fresh referendum and let the public decide between May’s deal, No Deal and No Brexit.
- The public will decide in large numbers that the best deal on offer is the one we started with and they wish to remain in the EU
- We’ll have an election and get a government with a progressive majority
- This whole national humiliation will be over and we can start focusing on how to fix the issues that drove us towards it. Neglect of former industrial towns. Austerity politics. Job insecurity and the effective removal of any working welfare safety net. Serious underfunding and a steady decline in the quality of public services like the NHS or local schools.
Neither of those leaders is now firmly in charge of a party that is united behind their determination to deliver Brexit. So it is entirely possible that their MPs will stop following their lead and will find a way of coming together behind a decision to put the decision back to the people.
The EU has helpfully offered UK MPs a number of ways out of the mess this government has created for itself.
- We can leave with no deal in mid-April. I don’t believe that it is possible to get a majority of MPs to consciously choose that but I do believe that there may be so much fresh chaos that it happens by accident.
- Parliament can vote for May’s deal and we also leave in mid-April. The only circumstances in which it is likely to do that is if there are only hours to go to the deadline and it is the only alternative to no deal.
- Parliament can revoke article 50. That is most unlikely as the majority of MPs quite rightly believe that the referendum result has to be afforded some respect and they couldn’t reasonably over turn it without public consent
- They can call a General Election and there will then be a much longer delay and the new government might then begin work on negotiating a softer Brexit. Which of course makes the very large assumption that a majority for that will be won in an election. And it relies on the even larger assumption that MPs who fear for their seats will vote by a two thirds majority in favour of an early election.
- They can call a People’s Vote.
Imagine it. Brexit goes down to a huge popular defeat and we start living in a country where there are large numbers of conscious enthusiasts for international co-operation. Whilst I am at it, I then start to fantasise that Donald Trump gets thrashed in the next Presidential elections by a candidate proclaiming the need for a Green New Deal. Along with the thought that Germany might have a Green Chancellor since the Green Party there is polling at 20% and is the largest of the groups that might form a Progressive Alliance. Together with the theory that the one party in Britain that has consistently been right on the big issues of our time (the Iraq War, Austerity, Brexit and the urgency of the environmental crisis) starts to get its reward in the voting booths and the Green Party in Britain becomes of central importance.
Then, just when I am feeling at my most optimistic, I listen to someone from the Labour leadership team telling me that we can’t let the people vote on Brexit because the people won’t like it. At a time of one of the greatest failures of national government Britain has ever seen there is still no sign of brave and effective opposition to its central policy. Corbyn keeps telling us that the only thing that has really got us into this mess is that the wrong person has been in charge of Brexit and that he could have done it better. I have yet to be convinced that he will ever follow his membership and genuinely come down in favour of a people’s vote that includes Remain as an option.
But let’s not ruin a rare moment of optimism. We can live in hope and if he does come down in favour of a referendum and wins a vote for it in the House of Commons then the chances of progressive parties winning the next General Election in Britain will be very much higher. I look forward to standing once again for the Greens against the Chief Whip Julian Smith and challenging him to explain why he promised us “Strong and Stable” Government and then delivered such utter chaos. Who knows – in such turbulent and unpredictable times I might even win!!