Instead we have…. well, what exactly do we have? Confusion. Chaos. Wild fantasy politics. And two weeks left. Working through the options map here’s what it looks like to someone who just got it badly wrong.
- We leave with no deal on 29th March
Yet one thing we do know about Brexit is that just because something is really damaging to the UK doesn’t mean that it can’t happen or that someone won’t tell you it is really quite wonderful because we are a great nation that can survive a little bit of disruption. There is now a majority in Parliament against almost anything you care to name. There is no majority in favour of any one option. The UK Parliament voting down no deal Brexit doesn’t stop it happening unless every single one of the 27 EU nations agrees to a delay in Brexit. They will only do that if there is some reason to delay. Such as a General Election, or a referendum. Unless either of those is agreed the UK leaves with no deal regardless of any Parliamentary vote.
- An election
It is also quite possible that she could lose it. People don’t tend to reward politicians who asked them to vote for strong and stable government and deliver utter chaos.
The most likely outcome is a hung Parliament and more of the same. Labour should be able to hold onto its seats in the old industrial heartlands. Many of the shires will continue to vote Tory. The great unknown is which way the constituencies will vote who favour remain. If Labour contests every one of those seats and voters are left with a choice between The Independent Group, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens most of those seats will go Tory. After Labour’s performance on Brexit there is absolutely no way that TIG, the Lib Dems or the Greens are going to gracefully stand aside for the one true party of the working class in return for nothing but threats and insults. So either Labour gets it head rapidly and effectively around a progressive alliance or not enough Remain seats will be won from the Conservatives. I don’t believe that will happen but would be really pleased to be proved wrong. I therefore expect another small Tory majority and for a General Election to change little. That is, however, a very unreliable prediction and the margins of error are enormous. Anything could happen.
- A Second Referendum
A fair and honest second referendum has to include three options to be seen to be legitimate. The British People have to express their first and second preferences on No Deal, May’s Deal and No Brexit. Opinion polls says No Brexit would win but don’t rely on that. Russian money will again be poured into a propaganda campaign. People who lied the first time will lie again. Big brazen lies are very much in fashion.
The good news is that there is also every prospect that No Brexit could win this vote and win it big. There is a real chance of fighting off the reactionaries and demonstrating that actually this country is pretty big on tolerance and co-operation and there isn’t a majority for small minded nationalism. We could then get on with the job of electing some MEPs and giving them a clear instruction to try and reform the EU rather than trying at every opportunity to wreck it.
Given the options available to us I think there is only one that offers a serious route out of the chaos and confusion that David Cameron and then Theresa May have led us into. Give us a People’s Vote and let the voters call the whole stupid thing off before it is too late.