Future Number One
In this world a brave and bold new Prime Minister unites the nation and sets out to cure its ills and make Britain great again. He goes off to Brussels where his detailed and practical ideas for how to enhance the existing Brexit agreement are quickly seen as a step forward and additional clauses are added. These are such an obvious improvement that Parliament votes through an amicable deal and the UK eases out of the EU without significant disruption. True to its word the Johnson government proceeds to pour resources into regional policy and governs for the whole of the UK. Shortly after signing the new Brexit deal Johnson goes to the country and wins a landslide.
Future Number Two
Like so many Conservative leaders, Boris Johnson starts his period in office by telling us how he is going to bring harmony where there is discord and look after the interests of people who have previously been left behind. Then he spends billions on tax cuts for the rich whilst keeping austerity for the poor and appoints a cabinet that fails to unite even his own party. Deeply privileged people like Rees Mogg are placed at the heart of government whilst honest voices of dissent are pushed aside.
Boris Johnson travels to Brussels without a single new idea on how to deal with the impossible problem of having different customs arrangements in Nothern Ireland and the Irish Republic without having a border. He also fails to come up with a solution to the impossible problem that the EU can’t agree to give a better deal to a former member than they give to existing members. He decides that his only way forward is to let the clock run down and go for a hard Brexit.
Despite much blather and many accusations that his failure to sort out these problems is the fault of the EU not everyone is impressed by the idea of the country crashing out without a deal. Chaos, confusion and a damaged economy don’t turn out to be universally popular. Farmers and businesses are particularly unimpressed by Johnson’s efforts to replace Britain’s membership of the EU with a rapid signing of a US trade deal. Complete capitulation to Donald Trump’s conditions or lengthy and fruitless negotiations from a position of weakness rapidly look like very poor substitutes for the existing deal with our immediate neighbours.
The business wing of the Conservative Party doesn’t like its leader following policies that are damaging to business. Nor does the farming wing. Johnson’s determination to rule from the far right produces splits and divisions in the Conservative Party. A mixture of sidelined and principled Conservative MPs reach the point where they are so frustrated by the direction of travel that they are prepared to vote for a motion of no confidence, repeal the fixed term Parliament act, and face a chaos General Election rather than put up with any more of the damage to the country. Not enough unprincipled Labour MPs worry about losing their seats in Remain areas to prop up the Johnson administration and he becomes one of the shortest-lived Prime Ministers on record.
Because there is a General Election underway the EU extends British membership of the EU. The split and confused Conservative Party loses huge numbers of seats. In the former industrial heartlands the commonest battle is between Labour and the Brexit Party. In Remain supporting areas and seats with large numbers of younger voters the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, SNP and Plaid win out. Much helped by a practical alliance between those determined to stop Brexit damaging the country. The election produces a hung Parliament and a rainbow alliance of progressive parties has the majority. The first act of the new Parliament is either to revoke Article 50 or to hold a second referendum.
We get our tolerant forward thinking country back and extreme far right nationalists are gradually reduced back to living in the margins of politics where their fanatical faith in impractical cure all politics belongs. The country sets about following a determined programme of Green New Deal politics with a group of active Green MPs pushing hard to ensure those policies are well thought out and practical but also sufficiently radical. Britain gets back to being a world leader on technology. Our society, our economy and our ecology is steadily made more sustainable, more secure and more equal.
Boris Johnson goes back to writing bad books about Churchill, splits with his latest young girlfriend and scrapes out a living by touring quiz shows and reality TV programmes.
Predicting the future is of course a mugs game. So I leave you to speculate on which future looks more plausible or indeed more desirable.
We are being asked to believe that a known liar and a cheat who can’t keep faith with his own partners is the ideal person to bring harmony to the country. Is it not at least possible that he can indeed produce much harmony? Amongst the majority of the country that is utterly opposed to almost everything he stands for!