Here is the plan as far as it can be justified with the name.
- Insist on leaving on 31st October come what may
- Set conditions for talks that you know the EU won’t accept (i.e. remove the backstop before even beginning discussions).
- Take the country into a No Deal exit
- Place the blame for that exit on Johnny foreigner and ramp up the nationalist rhetoric.
- Spend every penny you can find on handouts to cover up the economic damage of no deal and promise three times as much again
- Call an election as soon as we crash out so you can benefit from all the anti-EU anger that you’ve stoked up and not suffer too much from the blame of all the pain
- Become King of the World as you always wanted. Or at least King of one little bit of it.
- Take the UK firmly under the wing of the US bloc whilst talking loudly about sovereignty
- After Thursday Johnson is only likely to have a majority of one. His cabinet appointments have ensured that the business focused wing of the Conservative Party is now completely out in the cold and the lunatic fringe has taken over the asylum. It therefore only takes a small number of side lined, cross, or simply honestly worried Conservative MPs to ensure that his government falls in a no confidence motion. Provided that there aren’t a larger number of weak Labour MPs cynically determined to hang on to seats in areas that voted Leave who are prepared to be bribed to vote for Johnson.
- Johnson’s posturing bluster is fairly easy to see through and large numbers of voters who once backed Brexit are not at all keen on leaving the EU with no deal. For example, the man got booed by Welsh hill farmers. Many of them voted Brexit but few of them fancy trying to sell their lamb against competition from New Zealand in the domestic market at a time when they have just lost most of their EU sales. His plan may not prove to be as popular as he hopes.
- The economic give aways he needs to make are going to be counteracted by economic costs. Those same Welsh farmers may be placated if the government steps in and buys all their lamb at a fixed price but that’s a lot of money gone on achieving a quick fix that won’t last. People returning from holidays where they struggled to afford a meal out are not going to feel better off if the pound continues to slide and that leaves them paying more for fuel and food. A tax cut for the richest may not entirely improve their mood. Promised infrastructure projects for the north aren’t going to turn into reality in time for the election. If they ever do. No amount of government subsidy can prevent disaster in the UK car market as parts will have to cross borders multiple times and that means customs and paperwork costs soar. The vast bulk of the millions of pounds a week that we have been endlessly told are going to come back from the EU will have to be spent on measures to replace UK projects that are funded via money that already comes back from the EU. Even if every penny of what little is left is spent on the NHS it would begin to counteract the staff shortage problems in the NHS caused by highly skilled EU nationals leaving. A low pound makes it hard to attract staff from abroad and the skilled workers needed in the NHS simply don’t exist in enough numbers in the UK.
- The result of an election is far from clear. If Corbyn manages to hold up the Labour vote in their traditional heartlands against the challenge from Brexit then he will have a large bloc of seats. If the Lib Dems win significant numbers of seats from the Conservatives in Remain areas then they will have a significant bloc of seats. Co-operative with the Greens and Plaid will increase the chances of this and could also provide a smattering of Green MPs. It is hard to see Johnson retaining all the Conservative seats in Scotland. If he can even keep the Scottish Conservatives within his newly far right party. Will the DUP retain all their seats in a part of the UK that voted strongly for Remain and fears for its future after a crash out they helped to create? In short it is easy to see where the Conservatives lose seats but hard to see where they win new ones. It would take a stunning performance for the Conservatives to win an outright majority when the majority of the country opposes No Deal. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Never underestimate the power of naked nationalist campaigning. It is what Johnson has now chosen to rely on. In a pale imitation of his hero Trump. Equally never underestimate the fact that the British people don’t like liars, boasters and chancers like Trump and may well take great pleasure in inflicting a crushing defeat on our version. Nationalism has a strong tendency to undermine the nation and a lot of voters are going to spot the danger.
On the radio yesterday I heard his economic plans to spend in order to buy the election described as a new version of Keynsianism. Listeners were told that it was “boosterism”. My hearing isn’t what it used to be and, at first, I thought I was hearing the Johnson government described as “boasterism”. That would be a much more accurate description.
It remains to see whether the bulk of the British public will fall for the boasts, the lies, the promises, the blather and the jokes. Or whether enough of them want some responsible politicians to start facing up to the real challenges of the future.