All that now looks a lot more vulnerable. For a start they have lost a couple of bi elections and every loss reduces their majority by 2. That still means that in normal times they would need to lose 15 of the seats they won in May 2015 before their majority would go.
But of course we don't live in normal times. The 340 people they hoped to rely on are a very stroppy bunch indeed. Under Cameron, and indeed way back to John Major's time, the country has got used to the existence of a right wing in the Conservative Party that badly wanted to get out of the EU. That faction now thinks the general public has endorsed every single dream they have ever held and that the referendum entitles them to try and deliver on those dreams. So it has become an important part of a badly divided government and is busy trying to implement as many of its extremist fantasies as it can under the illusion that the public will be eternally grateful.
The conventional wisdom now is that May cannot afford to ignore this faction or they will bring her government down. In terms of simple parliamentary mathematics there is a technical term for this wisdom. Cobblers. Complete and total cobblers. The one faction of her party that May can now safely ignore and still win a majority is her extreme right. There is no circumstance that can be imagined where they could command a majority in the House if she opposed them. They aren't even in the majority on the Conservative side of the House and have no allies on the other benches.
Instead the danger to May's parliamentary majority comes entirely from the previous centre of her own party and for the first time in my lifetime from a left of centre with some strong supporters amongst rank and file members of the party. Anyone who joined the Conservative Party because they were a radical right Tea Party enthusiast is pretty happy at the moment. Anyone who joined it because they wanted a secure and steady environment in which to do good business is potentially a lot less happy. Not every Conservative joined the party because they wanted the pound to go down in value. Not every Conservative joined the party because they wanted to pay tariffs and obey rules they had no control over whenever they wanted to sell into the European single market. Not every Conservative joined the party because they thought that it would leave them unsure what trade barriers their business would be facing in a little over 2 years time. Nor did quite a lot of members expect their Chancellor to stand up and tell them that he didn't know when he might be able to balance the books but he was cutting taxes anyway in the hope that things would all workout fine sooner or later.
For a very long time there has been a very strong faction in the Conservative Party that believed to the core of its soul that the party should deliver what was good for business and that would be good for the country. A lot of those people think Brexit could turn out to be very bad for business indeed. They are very uncomfortable with it. This is not a minor little issue for them. Many people are deeply cynical about MPs and assume that they don't really believe what they say and will do anything to cling onto power. In my experience this is deeply wrong and very unfair. Most MPs are utterly sincere and actually believe what they say. Often that is what makes them so very dangerous. Occasionally it makes people in parties that you usually disagree with very valuable allies indeed.
When it comes to an issue of deep national interest there may very well be quite a number of Remain Conservatives who will worry about the number of exit voters and vote whichever way May tells them to. But there are also a significant number of others who won't do that unless May really can deliver every promise that the leavers have made. If she can actually provide cheap access to the EU single market, a raft of other excellent free trade deals, £300 million a week more for the NHS and a fair and just points based immigration system then May is most unlikely to have anything to worry about from her left wing.
If by any chance the Great British Public might actually have been lied to when leave promised us that all this was easy to deliver then May is going to have to deal with a very powerful and very cross left wing. It includes some old guard people like Ken Clarke who she might feel she can ignore. It also includes recent Education Minister Nicki Morgan who has no reason to love Mrs May for sacking her for being quite good at her job and therefore quite dangerous. It also includes Anna Soubry who is about as easy to compromise with as Mrs Thatcher on a bad day and every bit as effective in a fight. These are people with serious influence in the party. Do the maths on May's majority and it disappears in an instant if people like this decide that they are going to vote her down.
So the issue for anyone who is not impressed by May's attempt to persuade us that she has everything nicely in hand becomes a very simple one. At what point in her government is an issue going to arise that the left of her party simply cannot tolerate? When does it make sense to force the divide and find an issue that unites enough MPs to defeat May in Parliament?
There are many who think this should happen the day that Parliament is asked to vote on article 50. I happen to think that is a mistake. Provoke a General Election by voting down May on this issue and she will get back in with a landside so scary that it doesn't bear thinking about. I believe most of the general public want to give May a chance to sort out the mess of Brexit and are cutting her a lot of slack in the hope that she will do so. Voters will punish anyone who takes the chance to do that away from her. Those same voters will punish her even more strongly if she gets the chance to deliver and messes it up. A bit of patience might therefore be wise and necessary.
I think May is doomed to fail on the project she has set herself of providing Britain with a safe and secure exit from the EU. I think that is going to become clearer by the day and people are going to get very angry when they see the gap between what the far right promised us and what actually happens. I think the split within the Conservative Party can only widen and get worse as the painful realities develop. I think the British public needs to be in no doubt at all about what Project Reality looks like before they vote on whether they want it in a General Election. We've had the promises. Let's see enough of the reality of what May can really offer the public before we get anywhere near deciding whether she is the right person to be our Prime Minister for any length of time. I don't want another election five minutes after the referendum in which we have to try again to argue down wild promises about what lovely deals might be available sometime in some mythical golden future of the imagination. I want the far right to face the full fury of voters who have seen the empty nature of their claims.
So I am hoping that the left wing of the Conservative Party use their voting power very wisely. Fight for the best possible deal. Then make sure that deal is put before the public before anyone has to suffer the realities of it. Let May hang herself on her own failure to deliver. And then the hard work begins on trying to work with anyone half way sensible who is prepared to try and pick up the pieces of the mess we have gotten ourselves into.
Interesting times. Unfortunately.