Nothing could be further from the truth. Only one thing is guaranteed by the “Political Declaration” announced by Theresa May and the EU negotiators this week. More vicious disputes leading to more chaos.
I’ve rarely read a document that contains so much vagueness and makes such an obvious attempt to delay and dither on making difficult decisions. For example, after two years of careful negotiations it has been agreed that the UK and the EU: “should make arrangements for appropriate collaboration between regulators.” Has there ever been a more fatuous statement in a serious document? Or try this statement for size. The UK “will make fair and appropriate financial contributions” to any EU collaborative projects it continues to participate in and the management and consultation arrangements will be: “appropriate to the nature of the collaboration between the parties.” Has anyone ever written such meaningless waffle in a formal agreement?
Even when the document tries to get a little more specific it utterly fails. Apparently “The Parties envisage comprehensive arrangements that will create a free trade area, combining deep regulatory and customs collaboration, underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field for open and fair competition”. Is that really the best that the finest minds in the UK could come up with after months of discussion? It amounts to saying that we agree that it would be nice if we agreed. Indeed, it would but it would be even nicer if two years of work had enabled us to actually agree how things are going to work from now on.
The transition agreement and the political declaration don’t draw a line under Brexit and make it clear where the UK is heading. Nor do they put an end to the constant obsession with the issue which has distracted the UK from getting on with the job of modernising and stabilising our economy, our society and our ecology. They guarantee years more of rows about Brexit.
A huge effort is being made right now to get as many MPs as possible to accept that they need to get May’s deal over the line. Remainers are being told they must vote for it because otherwise they’ll get No Deal and this is the best way of getting a sensible business-like deal. Leave fanatics are being told they must vote for it because once we are out in name they can then get all the things they dreamed about but just a little bit slower. Does anyone think those two factions are too stupid to notice that they’ve both been promised exactly the opposite thing?
More importantly, does anyone think the two factions are going to stop fighting for their passionately held views on 29th March? This hopeless piece of blather guarantees that we will continue to lurch from one political crisis to the next.
What happens the first time the EU Parliament votes to change a regulation that the UK has to follow because of the transition agreements or because of a permanent agreement that we need close regulatory alignment? How hard is it going to be for the Sun to stir up anger inside the country against decisions that we no longer play any part in shaping? In what direction does the country drift the first time the European Court hands down a ruling on EU law that the UK has agreed to follow but didn’t wish to see interpreted in that particular way by panels of judges that don’t contain a single UK citizen?
Get used to turmoil. Get used to bitter division. Get used to uncertainty. From the day we leave one faction will be pressing as hard as it can for us to cut all ties with the EU whilst another will be arguing that we were better off when we recognised the realities of our position and had a seat around the negotiating table.
And it won’t just be in the Conservative Party where such turmoil continues. Corbyn launched a very good critique on the Political Declaration pointing out how entirely vacuous it was. Then he failed to point out the option of calling off the whole thing and instead went on to tell us how much better Labour’s Brexit would be than the Tory one. This is the worst of delusions. There isn’t a better jobs first wonder Labour Brexit waiting around the corner that can be signed within days of a new cure all Labour government being elected to office. There is only the same awful hard reality that May faced. The choices are stark. No deal. Remain. Or take all the rules without making them.
Labour could agree to accept a larger share of the rules than May has but it cannot negotiate any agreement that allows it to subsidise UK industry in order to protect jobs. That is against every rule the EU has ever passed since it started out as a simple Coal and Steel agreement between a few shattered post war nations.
Put simply there is no easy middle of the road solution to Brexit which pleases everyone and no nice Labour Brexit just waiting to be ushered in.
There is a certain theoretical logic to a hard Brexit. The nation could impoverish itself temporarily in the hope that somehow being exposed to the full force of the world free trade market will make us super competitive and super rich. I believe that is an utter fantasy and the only part of it that would be successful would be the impoverishment bit. I don’t believe that uncontrolled market forces are always and everywhere a good thing and an automatic cure all. I think they gave us the 2008 financial market crash that led to a decade of austerity for the wrong people and profligacy for those that caused the crash.
There is a much better logic to Remain. In a complex global economy it is necessary to be part of international organisations. Those organisations need rules and governance. At least the EU makes some flawed attempt to set those rules via a weak form of democracy. It is far better to be part of the grown up world of trying to sort out difficult international compromises as part of the most powerful regional international collaborative organisation than to be left exposed to the full force of uncontrolled free market forces.
The logic of May’s compromise deal simply doesn’t exist. The best that can be said of it is that it is an attempt to come up with a “nice in between” that can be sold to voters. It claims to be the least damaging way of getting us out of this mess. It isn’t. It is a firm guarantee of keeping us in this mess for another decade. Nor is there the least bit of logic behind Corbyn’s claims that his team of crack negotiators could sort out a better deal when no one in the EU is interested in offering one.
Are we really satisfied to sign up to a set of vague intentions and then spend the next five years trying to decide what they might mean? I don’t know about you but I don’t believe that even my interest in politics can survive years more of this sterile inward-looking debate.