So no one knows what would happen if May called a General Election and asked the public to vote for her deal. It is entirely possible that she could win it by persuading the British people that she was offering a nice little in between compromise. It is also possible that she’ll be punished for the chaotic splits in her party and Labour could get in. And then deliver Brexit.
What is not possible is that a General Election could result in Brexit being called off. Because both of the two largest parties are committed to delivering it. Given the first past the post system and their current standing in the opinion polls it is unlikely that enough people will vote Green or Lib Dem to elect a majority of MPs who are prepared to call the whole Brexit project off and get the country back to debating issues that really matter.
That is one of the prime reasons why a second referendum is necessary. It is the only mechanism that allows people who wish to Remain in the EU now that they know the facts to express their opinion in a fair fight. It is also the only mechanism which can reasonably overturn the original referendum. The people can’t betray themselves. If it was right to allow us a say on what we thought of promises then it is even more right to give us a say in what we think of the final deal. We need a single transferable vote on No Deal, May’s Deal or Remain.
There is, of course, no guarantee whatsoever that Remain would win that vote. I believe that people now know a lot more about what leaving the EU means and that with that knowledge it is not surprising that 55% of people polled are currently saying they prefer to Remain. Yet no one can know how solid that opinion polling support really is. Both the other outcomes are entirely possible.
When it comes to May’s deal my soundings from people not particularly interested in politics suggest that there is a lot more support for it out there in the country than there is in Parliament. The British people have a long history of quite liking to opt for compromise. Faced with a difficult choice between leaving with no deal or calling the whole thing off there will be a lot of people who will go for the middle option.
I believe that would be a huge mistake and that there isn’t a nice little compromise on offer. There is only a rank bad deal that leaves the country in a significantly worse place than when we started. The No Deal Leavers are quite right to say that this deal forces us to obey all the rules of the EU without having any say in them and that it also gives the EU a veto on whether and when we could move away from that model. It just so happens that this is exactly what those of us who opposed Brexit warned would happen two and a half years ago. I believe we will also be proved right about the extreme damage of No Deal Brexit. Even if we survive the immediate shock all those wonderful free trade deals will make the UK even more exposed to the forces that wrecked the neglected industrial towns of the English regions.
Yet just my logic won’t necessarily win out. If May runs a hard campaign that tells the nation it is her deal or chaos of No Deal then it is entirely possible the voices that say that we can actually call the whole stupid thing off will get drowned out. Never confuse what you wish to happen with what is likely to happen. A lot of people feel utterly fed up with the whole debate and just want it over. I think that voting for May’s deal will prolong the agony for years as we squabble over how we move forward from the backstop but that won’t be obvious to everyone. Other people think that we’ve spent so long talking about this that we need to do it as we’ll look foolish as a nation if we suddenly say that we didn’t really mean it and can we come back inside the EU please. I prefer to look foolish than to be foolish but the decisions of other voters may be very different.
Given the frustrations many voters feel over how slow, complex and difficult the whole Brexit thing has been it is also possible that No Deal could win. One of the most worrying things I’ve read recently is that a third of voters think No Deal means that we stay in the EU. After all the endless debate huge numbers of people have just zoned out and stopped listening. Given the poor quality and the obscurity of much of the debate I can’t say I exactly blame them.
There will also be a strong faction that is quite prepared to take a bit of pain in order to get the wonderful post Brexit future that they were promised delivered. There will be car factory workers in Sunderland who will vote No Deal in order to bring back factory jobs and who will stick with determination to their views even when the Nissan factory goes onto short time working because of the consequences of their vote. Plenty of people have so strongly bought into the promises of the Leavers that they will stick to their faith regardless of any evidence of the extent of chaos that No Deal will cause. It is entirely possible that a second referendum campaign might result in No Deal winning the popular vote.
Despite this I strongly believe that a second referendum is the right way forward. The very unpredictability of putting it back to the people is its strength. A second referendum isn’t a shoe in. It isn’t controllable by some hidden elite. It is a vote that is in the hands of ordinary people. If Parliament overturns their original choice even if that happened after a General Election then it is hard to see how this wouldn’t lead to increased cynicism about the political process. It is a lot harder to be critical of voters who simply change their minds because they have fresh information.
The only fair and honest way of overturning the original vote is to take the risk of a second referendum and to argue our case and win the argument. That would be far better than holding an election to decide which major political party should implement Brexit whilst the Green Party tries to limit the damage and get voters to remember the real political crisis.
As Attenborough says we are putting our entire civilisation and whole ecosystems at risk. Compared to that central reality the whole Brexit debate pales into insignificance.