The Prime Minister is now officially committed to following his policy of going back to Europe and telling them that the deal she just negotiated needs to be re-opened. She is committed to achieving concessions in a couple of weeks that she failed to win in two years. If she fails in this unlikely objective then the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal in less than 60 days from now. Either way Jacob Rees Mogg wins. Either way the rest of the country loses.
For many months I persisted in believing that common sense and the obvious danger to British business would result in a bodged last-minute compromise that ensured 29th March 2019 became a boring day when nothing obvious changed and the general public decided that perhaps all those warnings had indeed been as accurate as the ones about the millennium bug. I expected long slow Brexit damage not sharp and sustained shock.
Clearly, I seriously under-estimated the extent to which Theresa May would try and keep two directly opposed political standpoints within one political party. Along with her determination to ignore the concerns of business and the interests of the country provided it meant she could cling on to power for a few more weeks. The odds now have significantly shifted. It now looks about 50:50 between bodged deal and no deal with the odds on a delay being anyone’s guess.
We were told that if we voted for Brexit the UK would easily win the negotiations because we were a single united country and the EU was a squabbling mess of 27 countries who could never make a decision on anything. In practice things have turned out to be the complete opposite. The EU has spoken with one single united voice and stuck to one single clear position throughout. By comparison the UK has been badly divided, has shifted its position constantly, and signs up to deals which then get rejected by record margins of 230 votes in Parliament.
Now we are told that if we go back to Brussels in a determined enough way that they will give way at the last minute like they always do. The nice things about day dreams is that you can indulge in any fantasy that you want to. The bad thing about them is that sooner or later you have to wake up and face facts. Realists prefer to listen to what people actually say and to analyse the logical self interest of the people they are negotiating with.
It will be very hard for a number of European countries if the UK crashes out without a deal. It will be a lot harder for them if they lose the Single European Market and make leaving the EU a more attractive proposition than remaining in it. So it is very hard to see how they can sign up to allowing the UK to continue to enjoy tariff free, border free access for its goods and services. The only way they can do this is if we comply with all the EU rules without playing any part in making them. If, after two years more of negotiations with an unreliable partner the EU discovers that few people in the UK like that idea they need a backstop. Otherwise the UK will be signing deals to allow in US mass produced agricultural products. Once that happens it is simply impossible for the EU to allow free movement of goods and services over the Irish border without customs checks. That would be to wipe out most of European farmers in an orgy of food smuggling.
The EU therefore simply can’t remove the backstop without losing badly. A woolly set of words added to the current political declaration setting out the future good intentions is entirely possible for both sides to agree. Unfortunately, it is not possible to agree with Mr Rees Mogg. That leaves him in the driving seat and determining the future of not only the UK but also of the EU.
No wonder he feels smug.
I doubt whether Jeremy Corbyn feels quite so pleased with where things have ended up. Instead of going for principled opposition to Brexit he has constantly told us his party is committed to delivering it. Then he has led his supporters to expect a quick election, a Labour government and the delivery of a much better jobs first Brexit. The way things are right now none of those expectations look realistic. Especially the one about a jobs first Brexit.
Outside of the EU British workers and British customers are exposed to the full force of global competition. That is why Mr Rees Mogg is so strongly in favour of leaving. Protecting one single separate nation is a lot harder than protecting a large trading block. Nor is it possible for Labour to subsidise UK industry directly in order to bring back jobs in manufacturing. No country accepts goods imported from another country which has subsidies without slapping tariffs on those goods. There is not a single rule anywhere in EU legislation that forbids the UK from nationalising the rail industry or allowing local councils to borrow against solid assets and building council houses. So nothing in EU rules prevents him from following radical policies. The entire logic of Corbyn’s position is therefore every bit as implausible as May’s. There is no Brexit that helps the working class. There is simply a fear of losing seats in traditional Labour heartlands and a failure to face down the delusions that have been sold to many voters in those constituencies before it is too late.
If we are looking for hope in all this then we have to look to the long term. I think there is a genuine backlash against the loss of traditional British values. Most people don’t like losing tolerance and finding it replaced with shouty politicians and even more aggressive street thugs who are absolutely sure of the rightness of their latest fantasy. Most people don’t like hearing that their friends have had to apply for leave to remain and with 3 million people in that category there are very few of us who don’t know someone who is suffering from that. Most people don’t like the atmosphere of straightforward old-fashioned blatant racism that has come out from the shadows. Or the death threats to and actual murder of brave independent minded politicians.
Opposition to Brexit is now standing at 55% in the polls and it grows stronger by the week. People are fed up to the back teeth of hearing endless debates about it and are hoping against hope that it is all going to go away after 29th March and we’ll be able to get back to normal. That isn’t going to happen we are going to have at least two more years of rows over what kind of trading relationship we have with the EU and then a deal that leaves us worse off than where we started. That isn’t going to make the whole thing either go away or become more popular.
If you are one of the decent people who wants their tolerant, vibrant, proudly multi-cultural country back and understands that the real central issue for the world right now is how to live, work and consume in balance with the environment then I suggest you look hard at the Green Party. In Germany they have just reached 20% in the polls and could easily be leading the next government.
We have seen how much harm can be done by a few MPs representing a very ugly fantasy about returning Britain to the past. It will be interesting to see how much good a few more MPs can do who are representing a very far sighted vision of what Britain can be in the future.