Our concerns were based on a simple piece of logic. If you don’t have a border between two countries with different customs and immigration rules then you can’t enforce those rules. People simply move goods or themselves over the border. No one with any sense would pay the extra tariffs on the more expensive side of the border. You therefore can’t make independent decisions about your economy and instead you have to echo each other in every respect, accept smuggling or have a managed border. The second you have a border that is managed you need customs checks, paperwork, inspectors and something resembling border posts.
Do that on the island of Ireland and you create huge problems. The guards and the border posts are wide open to terrorist attacks. The quiet paths and back lanes are wide open to organised smuggling gangs. In the past both the IRA and the UVF took advantage of the opportunities. Their like will do so again. On top of that problem, any farmer or business wishing to move animals, food products, or goods over the border would be faced with a nightmare of paperwork and time delays. Any hard border would therefore at worse risk a return to well-funded terrorism and at best seriously inconvenience local people on both sides of the border.
That is why the majority of people in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. Let me repeat that truth. 55.8% of the population of Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU whilst only 44.2% of them voted to leave. Yet the DUP spent two years using its ten MPs to force Theresa May to give them bribes to vote to leave the EU and are now backing No Deal. In numbers this means that the will of 1,260,998 people in Northern Ireland who voted remain is being ignored whilst the votes of 789,879 for an easy deal and loads of money for the NHS are being interpreted as a demand for a hard Brexit. You don’t hear those statistics quoted often. Nor is the point made frequently enough that the Green Party got nearly twice as many votes as the DUP at the last election but one tenth of the seats.
At first the situation in Northern Ireland got little attention from the Brexiteers. The subject was simply brushed aside as a little local difficulty. Then gradually it was realised that there might actually be a serious issue. A solution was then discovered. Avoid looking properly into the difficulties by talking up the wonders of a “technical solution”. Tell everyone that amazing new border technology exists that means that a modern border doesn’t need customs checks. Despite the fact that there isn’t a single border anywhere in the world between countries with different customs regulations that doesn’t have some form of physical checks.
Incredibly spin quickly became official government policy. There was a time when British government was proudly rooted in practicalities. Now it is happy to follow the silliest of ideas provided that it conveniently gets the government through another week of the Brexit mess. There is, however, one big problem with indulging in fantasies. Particularly when you are in government. Sooner of later reality has a nasty way of coming along and demonstrating just how daft you were to believe it could be ignored.
That is what is happening right now. The UK government is seriously tabling a set of proposals for the Northern Ireland border to exist only in the imagination. Instead of having a border everyone will simply sit at a computer, fill out forms easily and quickly and then those forms will be checked on the other side of the border when the lorry arrives at its destination. What could possibly go wrong with such a well thought out and watertight cunning plan? Who could possibly imagine that the trucks that arrive could contain different things to the ones described on the computer? Why would any criminal gang or terrorist group think for one second that they could take advantage of the loopholes in such a flawless scheme?
The British government has clearly decided to comfort itself with its own propaganda rather than face up to unpleasant realities. It remains to be seen whether they can persuade the EU negotiators to be equally blind to harsh facts. It is entirely possible that in the face of the horrible reality of no deal then the whole of the EU will decide to play along with the fantasy. If they do, and any kind of fudged variant of Theresa May’s deal is brought before Parliament, I fear it will be voted through.
That doesn’t change the situation on the ground. Just because everyone signs up to a declaration that the earth is flat doesn’t make it so. There is simply no escaping the problem. Sooner or later if Britain leaves the EU there are going to be some form of border checks in Northern Ireland. For the vast majority of people on that island that represents a serious inconvenience. For a worryingly large minority that provides a motivation to restart the troubles.
Looked at from the point of view of the Irish government that must be a near impossible thing to sign up to. The political cost of being seen to agree that would be immense. So there is every prospect that Ireland will not accept a fudge.
Looked at from the point of view of the EU there are real dangers in selling out Ireland in order to avoid facing up to the realities of having the UK leave.
I therefore expect negotiations with the EU to fail. I think Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings also expect that. Indeed, I think they are probably planning for that to happen. We must therefore be ready for a collapse of any negotiations with a few days to go.
That leaves the opposition with a very hard question to answer. Do they have the guts and the alliances that are needed to overthrow the government and ask for an extension, a fresh referendum and an election? Or are they scared of Johnson roaring home as the man who stood up against the Brussels bureaucrats and was betrayed by elite remainers?
Sometimes courage is the only realistic tactic. If Johnson comes back with a fudge and squeezes it through Parliament he might walk the next election claiming to be the man who gets difficult things done. If he creates a no deal exit and tries to blame it on the French and the Germans he might also succeed in selling himself as the strong man we need in difficult times when we are surrounded by enemies and traitors. It is quite possible that he could win an election in either situation. Importantly it is also possible that he could lose. Unfortunately, no amount of trickery is going to avoid a showdown with Johnson. You cannot compromise with bullies. When you are faced with a corrupt and incompetent government of liars and cheats there is simply no option but to try and face that government down. You have to fight and win.
There is no fudged easy compromise way out of the situation Britain is now in. The Johnson minority government has to go before it does any more damage. There have to be consequences for lying and cheating. There has to be a price to pay for deceiving the Queen and trying to cancel Parliament. We have to make sure that we tap into the genuine concerns that the majority of decent people up and down this country have about the honesty and the reliability of the cabal that currently occupies 10 Downing Street.
We were promised that, if we voted Conservative, we’d get strong and stable government. We were promised we’d get responsible and mature management. Instead we’ve got the most irresponsible and bumblingly incompetent government ever. Are the opposition groups really going to be scared of calling that out in a General Election? Are they really incapable of working together to drive him out of office and then beat him at the polls? Do they lack the lack the guts to bring him down?
If so I suggest they picture this. Imagine the scenes as Boris Johnson is forced to leave 10 Downing Street and a sensible grown up arrives. Imagine the impact of such an abject failure on the far right of the Conservative Party. Imagine how that would empower progressive forces in this country to be seen to have beaten the trickster. Then get on and bite the bullet and sign up to a unity government to get us through the immediate crisis and prepare for the unavoidable election battle in a much better situation.