Pride, as they very rightly say, cometh before a fall. Reality has a nasty way of not slotting neatly into line with self-delusion. So, let’s look at some of the hard facts of the situation Johnson finds himself in and ask whether he really is quite as secure as he likes to think.
- He got into office by raising expectations. Now he has to deliver on meeting them.
- He has told people that leaving the EU will be the start of a wonderful new era when there will be new money for the NHS and pride will return to neglected communities. Actually, improving the NHS and those post-industrial communities will prove a lot harder than making promises and people tend to notice the difference.
- He has told everyone that the UK will be entering a glorious new era of international leadership and that he will be signing wonderful new trade deals. The squalid reality of accepting a trade deal with Trump’s America negotiated from a position of weakness isn’t going to be an easy sell. You can’t tell the public for years that we have to get free of EU control and then sign us over to the tender mercies of Donald Trump.
- He has solemnly promised that the UK will have a new trade deal with the EU by the end of this year or leave regardless. The only way of achieving that is to sign up to following every single EU regulation and I don’t believe that Johnson could, or indeed should, ever agree to that. That leaves him facing the problem that it is simply impossible for the EU to allow the UK tariff and regulation free access to their markets until they know what the terms are of his deal with the US. Unless the EU are stupid enough to grant the US free access to their market via Britain. So, the negotiations are going to prove more complex and difficult than Johnson expects and the risk of leaving without a deal or having to agree an extension will become increasingly evident as the year progresses. It is not clear that even an 80 seat majority is sufficient for his government to survive any failure on the logically impossible task of getting a trade agreement within months.
- The party he leads is still badly split. One faction is still hell bent on cheering on naïve extreme free market fantasies. The other doesn’t care about ideology and simply wants whatever is best for business. The two wings still don’t sit easily in the same party.
- The people who elected a new raft of northern and midlands Conservative MPs want to see life start to improve in their neglected communities. That isn’t top of Jacob Rees Mogg’s philosophy of life. How does Johnson’s government deliver an effective programme of state aid for the regions when this runs counter to everything that the majority of their MPs were taught in the womb by Margaret Thatcher? How does he help the north without using the power of the state? So, expect plenty of sound bites but also expect a failure to make a fundamental shift in the lived experience of people in places like Stoke on Trent, Sunderland and Bury.
- Johnson got into office with a remarkably high percentage of the country voting against him and his policies. Only 47% of the country voted Conservative, Brexit, DUP and the like whereas 53% voted Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Green, Plaid, SDLP etc. It isn’t going to be long before the majority of the county finds ways to make its voice heard.
- The vast majority of voters don’t trust Johnson. Again and again I heard voters say that they didn’t know which way to vote because they didn’t trust anyone. That means that he starts out with only the weakest of public support. If all goes swimmingly that will be fine. The moment problems are encountered that lack of trust will return with a vengeance.
- The economy is flat lining and is incredibly vulnerable to a repeat of something similar to the 2008 crash. The world economy is at the top of an economic upswing fuelled by historically scary levels of both private sector and government debt levels. No one can tell when the next downturn will come or how severe it will be but one thing is pretty certain. Johnson doesn’t have the intellectual or financial tools to deal with any new financial crisis.
- The environmental emergency continues to mount in intensity and to happen faster and with more obvious impact than most forecasters predicted. The tensions between what is necessary to do and what is convenient to do are challenging for even the most far sighted government. Bailing out Flybe and using government subsidies to take passengers off the trains and put them onto highly polluting short haul flights doesn’t exactly indicate that the new UK government is on top of the problem.
I trust that Johnson enjoyed his holiday. I have a lot less confidence that he can be trusted to run the country. Most commentators seem to think that he is now looking smug and secure with his feet firmly under the table for the next five years. I wonder. Is he really capable of charting his way through such complex and difficult waters? Or is he enjoying a honeymoon period that will end like all his other honeymoons?
In a nasty and bitter separation somewhere down the line.